Even a sequence of rapid job changes for workers – let alone lifetime employment – is on its way out. Instead, careers – if that is the word for them – will increasingly resemble networks of multiple and simultaneous commitments with a constant churn of new skills and outmoded roles. But the migration from ad hoc use to commercialization cannot be rushed.
Democrats might take both of the Georgia seats in the January runoff, thus clinching control of the Senate. Biden—a congressional veteran who is legitimately liked on both sides of the aisle and has a history of bipartisan dealmaking—might break the logjam. The economy might recover faster than expected without additional support from Washington, as businesses adjust and reopen.
Each associated with Roche’s best machines may handle 4, 200 assessments a day; build 5000 of those machines, plus you can test twenty million people each day. “We just need to flex some metal and create some machines. ” In case you can identify plus isolate those infected using the virus, you can allow the remaining population proceed back to business. The key, says Romer, is repeatedly testing everyone without symptoms to identify who is infected. (People with symptoms should just be assumed to have covid-19 and treated accordingly. ) All those who test positive should isolate themselves; those who test negative can return to work, traveling, and socializing, but they should be tested every two weeks or so. If you’re negative, you might have a card saying so that allows you to get on an airplane or freely enter a restaurant. However, a number of influential economists and health-care experts are saying there’s a way to get America quickly back in business while preserving public safety. But for every day that normal economic activity is shut down, a huge number of Americans won’t be earning an income.
The Federal Reserve, which has already cut interest rates to zero, set up new programs to help calm the financial system, and purchased trillions of dollars of government debt. Yet, as a decade ago, it cannot do what Congress can, and put money directly in American families’ pockets. “It’s for Congress to decide the timing, size, and components of further fiscal support for the economy, ” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference this month. “I do think it’s likely that further support is likely to be needed. ” A divided government is a hobbled government, and one that will hobble the recovery.
The novel coronavirus, fueled by indoor transfer over the winter holidays, will continue to maim and kill. States and cities will buckle under their budget gaps, and slash more jobs and social services. And the country’s unemployment-insurance expansion, student-loan-deferral program, and eviction moratoriums will expire, leaving the poor families bearing the brunt of this recession even more vulnerable. A double dip is possible, given that the recovery is already slowing down.
Our minds will at first be bound by old rules of economic growth and productivity. Our ability to solve our social and economic problems will be limited primarily by our lack of imagination in seizing opportunities, rather than trying to optimize solutions. In the words of Peter Drucker, as echoed recently by George Gilder, “Don’t solve problems, seek opportunities. ” When you are solving problems, you are investing in your weaknesses; when you are seeking opportunities, you are banking on the network. The wonderful news about the Network Economy is that it plays right into human strengths. Repetition, sequels, copies, and automation all tend toward the free, while the innovative, original, and imaginative all soar in value. The dark side of churn in the Network Economy is that the new economy builds on the constant extinction of individual companies as they’re outpaced or morphed into yet newer companies in new fields.
In late March, President Donald Trump warned against letting “the cure be worse than the problem itself” and talked of getting the country back to business by Easter, then just two weeks away. Casey Mulligan, an University of Chicago economist and former member of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers, warned that “an optimistic projection” for the cost of closing nonessential businesses until July was almost $10, 000 per American household. He told the New York Times that shutting down economic activity to slow the virus would be more damaging than doing nothing at all. In the first employment report after social distancing measures had taken hold in many US states, the Department of Labor announced that 3. 3 million people had filed jobless claims. A week later, in the first week in April, an additional 6. 6 million claims came in—almost unfathomable compared with the previous record of 695, 000, which was set in 1982.
As happened a decade ago, Republicans are newly interested in tackling deficits and the debt instead of spending to boost the economy. Having spent four years not paying for anything, including giant tax cuts for rich people and corporations, they have suddenly, predictably rediscovered their concern for the supposed fiscal burdens the old are placing on the young. Senator Lindsey Graham, for instance, said that you would see him “trying to find common ground that would benefit all of us, and a good place to start, I think, would be the debt, ” as well as infrastructure and immigration. Soon enough, some prominent politician will suggest a bipartisan, blue-ribbon commission to figure out the tough math, and start talking about trading pennies of short-term spending boosts for dollars of long-term debt reduction. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might work out a middle-of-the-road stimulus measure, helping to speed the recovery.